ราคาของลิเธียมคาร์บอเนตมีแนวโน้มที่จะแบ่งผ่าน 50million ในช่วงกลางถึงบอกว่ามันเป็นเรื่องยากที่จะทำลายและต้นน้ำกล่าวว่ามันสามารถเพิ่มผลผลิต

  • 2022-09-20

The upstream of  lithium carbonate says it can increase production

Financial Associated Press, July 16 (Reporter Li Zijian) The auction price of Pilbara lithium concentrate fell for the first time, which was regarded by the market as a signal that the price of lithium salts "peaked and fell". At the 7th China International New Energy Conference and China International Nickel Cobalt Lithium Summit Forum in 2022, Ma Rui, chief analyst of SMM Lithium, said that the gap between supply and demand will gradually widen by the end of the year, and it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter may exceed 510,000. Yuan/ton.

At the same time, the topic of "lithium is expensive and hurts birth" was discussed again by industry chain people. In a roundtable interview at the forum, Lin Hongfu, executive vice president of Zijin Mining (601899.SH), believed that rising lithium prices would greatly stimulate upstream (capital) investment, thereby increasing upstream production capacity. As the midstream companies Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ) and German Nanometer (300769.SZ), their responsible persons at the scene showed the attitude of "difficult to top" the industry chain (high cost pressure).

Lithium carbonate price may break 500,000 again

Few days ago, the seventh auction of Australian lithium miner Pilbara ended, and the price fell for the first time. The closing price of the auction was US$6,188/ton FOB, down 2.55% from the sixth "dark auction" transaction price, calculated based on the freight rate of US$90/ton. , the cost of battery -grade lithium carbonate is about 440,000 yuan / ton.

Or affected by the news, the domestic lithium mine-related A shares generally fell the next day, and there was a sound of lithium salt prices "peaking and falling" in the market. According to Ma Rui, chief analyst of SMM Lithium, it is still too early for lithium prices to "top".

The auction price of lithium concentrate has fallen, and the supply and demand of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have reversed in the first half of the year, and the market is worried that the high lithium price will not be sustainable. However, SMM predicts that the spot price of lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter may exceed the 510,000 yuan/ton mark, and the highest price of lithium hydroxide may rise to about 495,000 yuan/ton.

SMM data shows that China's total output of lithium carbonate in June was 31,734 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a month-on-month increase of 9%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 39% year-on-year in the second quarter.

Ma Rui believes that although lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will go out of storage in early 2022, the supply and demand side will temporarily reverse to accumulating storage in the second quarter due to the increase in supply and demand. However, in the second half of the year, lithium carbonate was mostly removed from the warehouse, and the gap between supply and demand gradually widened at the end of the year.

Lithium hydroxide is much the same. SMM expects that the supply and demand structure of lithium hydroxide will reverse again after the demand side gradually develops in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, the end of the year has entered the stage of rush installation, and the demand at home and abroad has risen rapidly, which may further widen the gap between supply and demand.

"The production speed of lithium mines is slow, and the new energy market maintains a high growth rate", which is one of the main reasons why Ma Rui believes that the global lithium raw materials will still be in short supply in 2022. It also said that from 2023 to 2025, as new overseas mines and salt lakes are put into production, and the downstream demand is met, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may have a downward trend.

"Lithium is expensive and hurts childbirth" is discussed again

Yuqun , chairman of CATL, is the "flag bearer" who rejects high-priced lithium salts. When the topic of whether high-priced lithium salts harm the industry was mentioned again in this roundtable forum, people in different links in the industry chain had a basic consensus, but they also gave Different answers came up.

Lin Hongfu, executive vice president of Zijin Mining, believes that from the basic law of economics, prices reflect demand, and (high prices) will lead to better resource allocation. The rise in lithium prices will greatly stimulate upstream (capital) investment, prompting a rapid increase in upstream production capacity, which will shift lithium prices. "So, I think in the long run, (short-term high lithium prices) is good for the healthy development of the industry."

Zhu Lei, general manager of Zhicun Lithium Industry Group, said that the people 's recognition of electric vehicles is getting higher and higher, the country is investing more and more in renewable energy such as scenery, and the improvement of energy storage is getting higher and higher, so the demand is real. Supply has not yet matched demand, leading to price increases, but there must be a reasonable range. If the price rises too high, consumers may find that buying electric vehicles may not be as cost-effective as buying gasoline vehicles, or energy storage cannot meet the investment return of the project. Industrial Development.

"The price has skyrocketed, and it is at a high level, which will definitely hurt the long-term healthy development of the (industry)" Dangsheng Technology, as the midstream of the lithium battery industry chain, its deputy general manager Wang Xiaoming believes that the industrial chain still needs to curb excessive speculation and establish long-term The cooperation relationship between the two companies will minimize the intermediate links, and the terminal will make a cheaper and better electric smart car, and finally win the competition in the oil car. "Our business will last longer."

Ren Wangbao, vice president of German Nano, directly called the pressure on terminal battery factories and car factories "very great". It said that in addition to the upstream, battery factories and car factories also went to find lithium salts because they could not accept such high lithium prices. The previous research report of Sinolink Securities pointed out that for every 100,000 yuan increase in lithium price, the corresponding increase in the cost of lithium iron phosphate vehicle is 3,808 yuan.

Ren Wangbao further analyzed from the perspective of business operation, "We believe that new energy vehicles have reached a very critical stage, because consumers have already received a high degree of acceptance, so many battery factories, car factories, and material factories are expanding production. The process of expanding production It requires a lot of capital." The spot price of lithium carbonate is relatively high, and the operating capital alone "can't stand it for everyone."

But Ren Wangbao did not accuse a party of responsibility, he added that the rise in lithium prices is a market behavior, "We can't unilaterally blame the upstream or a certain party, it must be the result of a market push, the market goes up and down, we We can't blame one party for too much growth, which is not good for the industry."

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